Intuition Without Knowledge is Just Guessing

Whatever the product, whatever the industry, successful marketing campaigns build on a solid foundation of great consumer research—both qualitative and quantitative. 

Most of us incorporate intuition—that gut sense of “just knowing” something to be true—somewhere in our everyday decision-making process.  Under the right circumstances, it can be a useful tool—a quick way to clear through the clutter of too many choices.  But relying on intuition alone to make major decisions at home or work is a risky business at best -- especially when it involves guessing about what other people want or other people’s points of view

To cut costs in a highly competitive marketplace, however, some companies are advising marketing managers to “trust their intuition” as a substitute for consumer research.  They’re making a big mistake.

No one doubts the value of using intuition in some situations.  But it should not replace the practice of listening closely to, and gaining a deep understanding of, consumers through qualitative research. 

Here is a great illustration  -- the development of Gogurt by General Mills presents a cautionary tale about the usefulness of intuition without listening to consumers.  Gogurt has been a very successful brand for the Minneapolis-based company—yogurt-in-a-tube now seems like a no-brainer, we take consumer acceptance for granted.  But it didn’t start out that way.  Without the rich consumer research that led to its development (I had the privilege of conducting most of the qualitative component), the product might well have never been launched.

Before conducting qualitative research, the marketing team’s original plan and strategy was to create a fun way to eat yogurt.  As a result, the first package designs reflected that strategy—and were quite different from the now-familiar tube. Through focus groups and in-home placement, they discovered their original package idea was not workable, too hard to use and even embarrassing for some. 

Later in development, upper management was concerned that moms of young children would be turned off by the yogurt-in-a-tube -- they assumed it would be too messy.  That assumption turned out to be wrong.  The major “Aha!” moment came from focus groups with mothers of toddlers and very small children with whom the product was first placed in-home.  Before even being asked, the moms came into the focus group room raving about how much less messy yogurt-in-a-tube was from other yogurt products for their small children.  Eliminating the spoon made this yogurt less messy—easier and better for small children, not worse.  Moms loved it because it allowed them to give their children yogurt—a healthy snack—in the car or on the run, without worrying about the mess. 

Rather than “fun,” the primary benefit of Gogurt turned out to be its portability.  Even the name relied on this insight.  Without giving consumers a chance to use and talk about the product in focus groups, that would not have been discovered.

Putting Intuition in Its Place

There is no denying the value of using intuition as part of the decision-making process.  Sometimes, our gut gets it right.  But with millions of dollars and the success or failure of executive careers at stake, consider the pitfalls.  If it is not based on as thorough an understanding of your consumers’ wants and needs as possible, intuition can easily lead you astray.  Here are just a few of the ways intuition is filtered:

Wishful Thinking—Wishful Thinking (also known as “Magical Thinking”) leads to biased decisions based on the fulfillment of unconscious needs and/or desires.

Personal Bias—Intuition is, by definition, a power of the single, isolated individual.  Overgeneralizing the validity of a single observer or decision maker’s perception causes radical differences among and between people to be overlooked and/or excluded.

Blind Spots—It is impossible to know what we don’t know. The less we know about or understand our consumers, the more likely we are to assume things about them that are not true

Overcharged Emotions—If we relied on our intuition in a previous situation, and our gut feeling turned out to be right, we can become overconfident of our predictive powers.  People tend to remember their successful intuitions and forget about the wrong ones.

Misattribution—If our intuition is not derived from research, it is easy to forget where it is coming from.  Research shows that we may think our “gut feeling” is based on a solid source, and only later discover it came from a letter to the editor in Reader’s Digest.

Media Bias—The media presents a slanted view of reality, distorted in all sorts of ways.  For example, journalists are more likely to report on the strange and unusual than the “normal” or typical.  This gives us a skewed picture of the ordinary and the average.

Focus groups often produce surprises – I have learned this as a busy focus group moderator with more than 25 years’ experience helping some of America’s best-known companies and brands gain insight into their customers.  You can only learn so much about your customers’ needs and desires without interacting with them face-to-face.   Qualitative research gives you the richest, deepest possible insight into your consumers, a depth of empathy and understanding that can’t be gotten any other way.  The best way to know what your consumers want and need is to listen carefully to real people in real time.  Now that’s a no-brainer.